Kayihura, Lumumba
reveal NRM’s 2016 plan
Just days to the
Feb.18 general election, tension and fear of election-related violence is
rising across the country. Pressure has gone up over recent statements by the
top leaders of the army, police, and the ruling NRM party warning opponents of
President Yoweri Museveni that they will be killed and crushed. Some
commentators are calling the statements a form of “psychological rigging”.
Others are saying the statements are an indication that the NRM party is in
panic mode, according to some observers.
Political temperatures went a notch
higher on Jan.31 when an outspoken general, David Sejusa, who has sought to be
a self-appointed coordinator of election-related protests, was arrested. A
January 20 opinion poll by a local firm, Research World International (RWI),
put Museveni at 51%, his nearest challenger Kizza Besigye at 32% and former
Museveni ally and Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi at 12%.
This is the first time the election is
not a two-man run between Museveni and Besigye. Mbabazi’s strong showing – although
much lower that initially anticipated- has raised the spectre of an
unprecedented re-run.
“The regime is challenged and we are
going to see the true colours of NRM,” said Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a senior
lecturer of history and development studies at Makerere University, “This is
also an indication that NRM politics is politics of militarism. For them,
unless they have won, there cannot be any other winner.”
The European Union, civil society
activists, and members of the opposition have joined those calling for the army
and police to be restrained and ensure a peaceful election. It is not clear how
the government plans to deal with the growing fear. President Museveni has
previously said he would not hand over power to `confused groups’. But he has
not spoken out this time. The Electoral Commission has also remained
silent. On Jan. 24, the Secretary General of the NRM, Justine
Lumumba, warned parents in Kampala and the neighbouring district of Wakiso not
to let their children join any post-election violence.
“Let me tell you the truth,” Lumumba
said at a public gathering, “this NRM government is not going anywhere. What
they (opposition) are planning that you should send your children to Kampala to
create chaos...They will kill your children if they come to destabilize and
disorganize peace and security in Kampala and Wakiso.”
A few days later, Gen. Kale Kayihura,
the Inspector General of Police told members of a police-allied vigilante
group, the so-called Crime Preventers that the government would not hand over
power to the opposition. “We shall not hand over power to the opposition to
destabilize the peace which we fought for,” Kayihura told the 65,000 crime
preventers in the eastern district of Kapchorwa.
A report of Kayihura utterances in The
Observer newspaper of Jan. 27 prompted the head of the European Union Mission
in Uganda, Kristian Schmidt, to tweet Kayihura a query.
“Gen, I respectfully ask: Were you
quoted correctly in today’s Observer,” Schmidt tweeted.
Kayihura reportedly also told the crime
preventers that they would soon be changed from stick-wielding officers to
those who carry rifles so they may get ready to defend this country in case of
any attack.
Kayihura and Lumumba’s utterances have
been criticized on almost all media platforms.
Psychological rigging
Patrick Wakida, the executive director
of RWI and Besigye ally says the statements from senior government officials
are a “deliberate ploy to intimidate the voters”.
“In my view, they have learnt that
Ugandans fear insecurity and they are therefore trying to hoodwink them telling
them that if you don’t vote this candidate, this will happen and that earns
them votes,” Wakida told The Independent in an interview.
“If you look at rural Uganda, people
who vote NRM don’t vote them for delivering public services, but vote them on
grounds that they have ensured that they sleep peacefully.”
Wakida says comments such as those
recently made by the NRM Secretary General can be used in the courts of law in
future to allege that elections were rigged.
“This is because elections can be
rigged psychologically,” Wakida said.
Wakida says Museveni does not take
anything for granted.
“If one has watched the rallies of both
President Museveni and Kizza Besigye, you can understand where they are coming
from. What is clear is that there is a contest that has never happened in this
country.”
“If you look at Besigye’s support
today, it is higher than ever before in terms of broadness.” Wakida says
people with a lot of influence such as Lumumba and Kayihura should refrain from
uttering such statements because they can be disastrous especially as we head
towards the election where every candidate think they are in the lead and they
expect to win.
The police has since released a
transcript of what it says is what Gen. Kayihura said. It does not contain the
offending utterances.
On Jan. 31, while appearing on a
current affairs programme on NTV, Lt. Col. Paddy Ankunda; the UPDF
spokesperson, also said he is not sure if statements made by the generals were
not quoted out of context.
He said although talk of
election-related violence has “been completely put out of context by the
Ugandan public, the government has intelligence showing that there are groups
within Kampala and around the country who are planning violence particularly
after the election”.
“I have said on television and radio
that it does not matter who the people’s choice is going to be, come Feb.18 or
19, the UPDF will salute whoever will be elected by the people of Uganda
through a free and fair election.”
He said the army is “interested in
taking the country to a post-election situation where there is no violence”.
He said it is not for the army to
interpret if the intelligence is being blown out of proportion or being
manipulated for political gains on the side of the incumbent.
“The army would rather act on wrong
intelligence than not acting at all on correct intelligence,” he said.
A common thread in all the statements
and denials is a refrain of likely election-related violence and the
determination and ability of the security forces to crush and kill
demonstrators.
Livingstone Sewanyana, the executive
director of the Foundation for Human Rights Initiative (FHRI) has called such
statements unfortunate.
He noted that the right to protest is
entrenched in Article 29 of the Uganda Constitution which gives the right to
Ugandans to demonstrate peacefully as long as they are unarmed.
“So for Lumumba to say that those who
will protest will be shot, we consider that irresponsible and unacceptable.”
“This is a war drum which is completely
uncalled for because when you go into an election, there are two options; one
is to win and the other is to lose.”
Sewanyana also noted that President
Museveni has always boasted that his government ended the reign of terror and
stopped state-inspired violence and extra-judicial killings.
“So for Kasule Lumumba to come out and
say that anyone who attempts to protest will be killed is against the NRM
philosophy and method of work.
“In any case, when the NRM government
came to power in 1986, its major slogan was promotion of democracy, respect for
human rights and rule of law.”
Sewanyana said police should not to be
partisan in the election process.
“As key law enforcers, they must be
able restrain anyone engaged in acts of violence or abuse of the law without
fear or favour irrespective of whatever political party that group may be
from.”
“If you say that you are not going to
hand over power that means that elections are useless because when you agree to
go into an election you expect to win or lose.”
Sewanyana said the youth Kayihura is
trying to employ as crime preventers are largely unemployed and they are likely
to abuse that power they are being given and so there needs to be a clear legal
framework to regulate them.
Sewanyana said the Citizens Election
Observers Network- Uganda (CEON-U)—a consortium of 18 local civil society
organisations currently observing the electoral process across the country has
already documented cases of abuse by crime preventers and the report has
already been passed onto the Police.
Lack of trust
Other commentators, including
Mwambutsya, say the government is creating a violence atmosphere and they are
whipping up the violence sentiment among the population. “If you have
trained 11 million crime preventers and you have a budget for post-election
violence, then you are creating a violence atmosphere.
“Remember this is a regime that has
stayed in power for 30 years without a big challenge, and for individuals like
Lumumba who are quite young and have never met real political challenge think
politics is about intimidation.”
Lumumba, 43, the Bugiri Woman MP joined
politics in 2001. In an interview, she once revealed that fear of violence had
kept her away from politics. According to her, when the Democratic Party (DP)
lost the election in 1980, her father - a DP Chairperson in the Busoga region
suffered a lot.
“When UPC won, we suffered; they robbed
us; all our property was taken by the UPC Chairperson of our region and that
made me fear politics,” she said.
Ndebesa said Lumumba and Kayihura need
to be exposed because they can take this country back to that history.
“It is ironical that the NRM party went
to the bush fighting for freedom but now they are fighting against freedom.”
Olara Otunnu, the Uganda People’s
Congress president told The Independent that statements coming from these
government officials should not surprise anybody.
“It is in their DNA,” he told The
Independent, “That is what brought them into power. It is the war machine and
the violence and repression that have sustained them in power.
“It is now up to Ugandans to decide
that they have had enough of the war-mongering, the repression and the war
machine and that they want to take the country back into their hands from those
who have hijacked it using war and bloodshed.”
The Feb. 18 election is the fifth since
the NRM and Museveni came to power in 1986. But tension has always been high.
The last election in 2011 was followed by massive protests led by Kizza Besigye
until they were quashed by the military forces. But for the first time, there
have been incidents of clashes between civilian supporters of the three main
candidates; Besigye, Mbabazi, and Museveni and the police. Violent attacks have
happened in the districts of Jinja, Ntungamo, Gulu and Kapchorwa.
Political pundits are likening the
situation in Uganda to events leading to the 2007 post-election violence in
Kenya. Everyone is urging politicians from all the camps to tone down on their
violence rhetoric. Evidence from the 2007 Kenyan political fiasco suggested
that much of the violence had been pre-meditated and planned by politicians and
community leaders at both the local and national level. This, local political
observers, say could easily happen in Uganda. Irene Ikomu, a young lawyer
and coordinator of Parliament Watch Uganda, a civil society organization that
monitors the activities of Parliament told The Independent that the fear is
partly a result of lack of trust in the electoral process.
“When people don’t believe in
elections, then it is easy for something to spark off electoral violence,” she
said.
The warnings of approaching violence
are, therefore, being taken seriously. On Jan. 25, the US State Department
issued a travel warning to American citizens intending to travel and those
residing in Uganda asking them to be vigilant, exercise caution and “remain
abreast of the security situation throughout the electoral period”.
“Gatherings intended to be peaceful can become confrontational and turn
violent,” the U.S. warned. It is a sentiment many Ugandans share.
http://www.independent.co.ug/news/news-analysis/10967-election-war-fears
